Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
